Two Different Markets, Same City

New-development condo pricing at the top end has been genuinely strong: recent Manhattan new-development pricing has averaged roughly $1,970–$2,000/SF, with luxury product at $3,000+ and ultra-luxury at $4,000+. New-launch supply has also been unusually thin — early-2026 launches ran roughly 75% below the ten-year average for that quarter, which has supported pricing at the top.

The resale market tells a different story: Manhattan resale condo pricing has actually declined over the past decade, and a large share of recent sellers reportedly sold at a loss over the past year. That's worth knowing, because it's the new-development and land side of the market — not resale — that determines what a developer will pay for your site.

The Numbers That Matter to Sellers

  • East Williamsburg, Brooklyn: a four-lot assemblage sold at roughly $450/BSF — a reported record for the submarket
  • Brooklyn, borough-wide: average land values reached roughly $313/BSF, an all-time high, with City of Yes cited as a contributing driver
  • Manhattan development sites (2025): roughly $3.97 billion across 64 deals, averaging about $468/BSF excluding trophy outliers — up ~19% in dollar volume year-over-year
  • 800 Fifth Avenue, Manhattan: an $810 million trophy deal at roughly $2,869/BSF — illustrating the ceiling on truly prime sites

Why Condo Is Beating Rental Right Now

2025's Manhattan development-site data shows both condo and rental activity climbing, for different reasons. Rental volume grew mostly through small-to-midsize projects sized to fit the 485-x Modest Rental track without triggering construction wage requirements. Condo volume grew on the strength of large, trophy-scale deals.

The underlying logic: 485-x pencils cleanest for rental projects either small enough to dodge its wage floor or large enough to absorb it comfortably. Sites that fall in between — or that are simply better suited to for-sale product — increasingly pencil better as condo, especially now that 421-a-era legacy sites have largely run out. High interest rates have made rental financing tougher, condo sellout economics return capital faster, and the 2024 FAR cap repeal plus City of Yes have unlocked more sites capable of supporting condo-scale projects than existed before.

Where to Watch

  • Long Island City, Queens — the OneLIC rezoning opened significant new density; active land assemblage
  • Astoria, Queens — high development volume even as per-square-foot pricing has softened, which some buyers read as a value entry point
  • East Williamsburg / Bushwick fringe, Brooklyn — site of the record $450/BSF trade
  • Downtown Brooklyn / Brooklyn Heights — luxury condo product holding value better than mid-tier Brooklyn product
  • Upper East Side near Central Park, Manhattan — trophy redevelopment activity
  • Financial District, Manhattan — the value entry point in Manhattan pricing, and recently the borough's most-searched neighborhood on StreetEasy

Not every submarket is participating equally — mid-tier product in parts of Crown Heights, Bed-Stuy, and inner Williamsburg has softened with rising inventory. Location and product positioning matter more than borough-wide averages suggest.

Volume Trend

Manhattan development-site sales totaled roughly $3.97B across 64 deals in 2025 (+19% dollar volume year-over-year). Queens investment sales rose about 16% to roughly $3.43B, with development-site sales up more than 40%, largely attributed to newly unlocked density in Long Island City and Jamaica. Brooklyn saw roughly $3.25B across 453 transactions in the first half of 2025 (all property types).

If You Own Land in One of These Areas

Current land pricing is directional, not a substitute for comps specific to your site — market conditions here move quickly. If your property sits in or near any of the submarkets above, or has meaningful unused FAR anywhere in the city, it's worth finding out what current condo development economics say about it. See our guides on how land value is calculated and multifamily land value.